How AI & De-Democratization are shaping our Future

Written By Ciprian Stanescu

AI Risk Frameworks and De-democratisation are at the forefront of the future of society. As we navigate this evolving landscape, it becomes evident that fostering transparency and inclusivity in AI governance is pivotal. Additionally, striking a balance between innovation and safeguarding against potential risks remains a paramount challenge that requires ongoing attention and collaboration across various stakeholders.

A critical challenge facing contemporary societies refers to democratic norms and institutions being tested and, in some cases, eroded by the rise of authoritarian right-wing populism and rejection of democratic values and practices realities. Understanding and addressing these trends is crucial for preserving and strengthening democratic systems worldwide. These two forces of change are presented in more detail in the ”24 Trends for 2024” annual report from Solutions.

AI Risks Frameworks 

In 2024, AI risk frameworks are an essential aspect of managing the potential risks associated with the deployment and operation of AI systems. The current trends and initiatives indicate a growing awareness and action toward managing the risks associated with AI, emphasizing the need for responsible governance and the development of robust risk management frameworks.

There is a rise in comprehensive governance policies, processes, and tools that include testing and validation for AI-generated content, along with continuous monitoring across the entire system. Establishing a clear AI policy, that outlines ethical, responsible, and inclusive criteria for AI use, is crucial. This should be coupled with educational initiatives to equip teams with the necessary skills to implement these guidelines. We envision these elements as foundational for businesses to develop and execute concrete AI strategies. This approach is essential for the safe and responsible use of AI technologies.

Creating guardrails to mitigate AI risks involves a multi-step approach: 

  • identifying potential dangers associated with AI, such as ethical issues, privacy concerns, and security threats; 

  • developing guidelines and standards to address these risks; 

  • implementing technical and procedural controls to enforce these standards; 

  • continuously monitoring and evaluating the impact of AI and the effectiveness of these guardrails; 

  • educating developers, users, and stakeholders about AI risks and responsible usage; 

  • and collaborating with various stakeholders, including regulatory bodies, to ensure comprehensive and effective risk mitigation. 

Source: Data and AI Governance: Evolving Traditional Data Governance in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, article by Charles Smart

As companies adopt AI, they will become more aware of its risks and inherent characteristics. Businesses are expected to take specific steps to address these concerns. Retrieval Augmented Generation can aid Large Language Models (LLMs) in sourcing information from reliable references. 

Generative AI Governance and Risk Management: 

Managing risks associated with generative AI is a crucial concern. Deloitte’s report discusses the importance of governing generative AI, focusing on managing risks related to governance, talent, and economic inequalities. It emphasizes extracting practical AI benefits while responsibly navigating challenges​​.

Government's role in AI: 

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) is using AI internally to improve its operations and gain insights into AI’s benefits and limitations. GAO recently began deployment of a large language model to explore generative AI capabilities similar to those found in industry, tailored with specific GAO information and security measures. Through these developments, the GAO is gaining valuable insights into AI's potential risks, aiding in the assessment of AI usage in other federal agencies and enhancing its ability to provide informed assistance. The variety of AI use cases is provided by GAO in the List of Artificial Intelligence Use Cases GAO Is Exploring as of January 2024.

The EU's proposed AI Act seeks to establish a comprehensive framework for overseeing the development and deployment of reliable AI within the EU, representing the world's most ambitious and all-encompassing legislation designed to govern AI.

Integration of risk management frameworks in AI strategies: 

Companies are increasingly incorporating risk management frameworks in AI strategies, focusing on risk assessment, documentation, and continuous monitoring, promoting AI innovation grounded in safety and trust​​. Immuta Report shows companies are struggling to keep up with rapid AI advancement: 88% of the 700 survey respondents said that their organisation is using AI, but 50% said the data security strategy at their organisation is not keeping up with AI’s rapid rate of evolution. 

De-Democratization

Over the past decade, several European Union (EU) Member States have undergone significant processes of de-democratization, resulting in adverse effects on equality and social justice. Democracy, both as an ideal and a practice, is closely linked to principles such as equality, openness, universality, rights, inclusion, participation, and contestation. 

De-democratization manifests in various ways, including the rise of authoritarian right-wing populism and a clear rejection of democratic values and practices (Brown 2019; Runciman 2018). This phenomenon highlights both the vulnerability and resilience of democratic institutions and practices.

The concepts of de-democratization, as explained by David Runciman (2018) and Wendy Brown (2019), involves the decline or erosion of democratic principles and practices in various societies, characterised by the rise of authoritarian radical right-wing populism and rejection of democratic values and practices.

These trends indicate a shift away from the traditional democratic ideals of pluralism, inclusive governance, and respect for human rights. Instead, there is a movement towards more centralised, autocratic forms of governance, often justified by claims of restoring order, national identity, or responding to perceived threats to societal stability.

Rise of Authoritarian Radical Right Populism trend: This refers to the growing popularity and influence of political movements and leaders that lean towards right-wing authoritarianism. Such movements often capitalise on populist sentiments, appealing to the general public's dissatisfaction with the current political status quo. They tend to promote nationalist, anti-immigrant, and often anti-globalization ideologies.

Rejection of Democratic Values and Practices trend: There is an increasing tendency to reject the core values and practices that underpin democratic systems. This includes a diminishing respect for the rule of law, erosion of civil liberties, and undermining of institutions that support democratic processes, such as independent media and judiciary systems.

The PopuList provides a list of European parties from 31 countries that can be classified as populist, far left, and/or far right. Launched five years ago in partnership with the Guardian, it identifies in the present 234 anti-establishment parties across Europe, including 165 populist parties (most either far-left or far-right). It classifies 61 parties as far-left and 112 as far-right (most, but not all, populist). 

The Guardian published the findings of The PopuList 3.0 that explains why 32% of European voters in recent national elections voted for anti-establishment parties, compared with 20% in the early 2000s and 12% in the early 1990s. Led by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, the research involved over 100 political scientists. The main ideas of the report are centred around the significant rise in support for anti-establishment political parties in Europe, particularly those on the far-right and far-left – and this is the vote share that is increasing most rapidly.

Vote shares of (1) far-left, (2) far-left populist, (3) populist, (4) far-right populist, and (5) far-right parties in 31 European countries, weighted by population size. Source: popu-list.org

Main trends from PopuList analysys

Growing support for radical political movements: The research indicates a notable increase in European voters choosing populist, far-right, or far-left parties. This shift is compared with earlier years, highlighting a significant change in voter preferences towards anti-establishment politics.

Variety of voter concerns: The study suggests that far-right parties have broadened their appeal beyond traditional issues like immigration, tapping into various voter insecurities and concerns, including cultural issues, economic stability, and recent crises like COVID-19 lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Shift in Mainstream Politics: The research discusses how mainstream political parties, particularly those on the centre-right, are increasingly adopting policies similar to those of far-right parties, especially regarding immigration. This shift is eroding the traditional barriers between mainstream and far-right politics.

Evolving Dynamics of Political Competition: The success of anti-establishment parties is leading to a change in political dynamics, with mainstream parties increasingly engaging with far-right groups, a scenario that was previously unlikely.

Tolerance Towards Radical Right: There’s a growing tolerance among the electorate for radical right parties, which is expanding their potential voter base beyond their core supporters.

The 2024 elections could significantly impact the European Parliament, potentially leading to opposition against the Green Deal and a stricter approach to EU sovereignty matters such as migration and support for Ukraine. Far-right parties are predicted to gain substantial seats in several countries, including France, Poland, and Austria, possibly forming a right-wing majority with Christian Democrats and conservatives. This shift could challenge the EU's stance on international cooperation and defense of its values, especially with the potential for an inward-focused right-wing coalition and the return of Donald Trump in the US.

The impact of de-democratization

The effects of de-democratization are clearly seen in the rise of far-right groups that openly reject concepts of gender, feminism, migration, and LGBTQ+ rights. Such parties not only challenge established norms but also risk influencing mainstream political entities to retract their support for gender equality and democratic principles. Conversely, this scenario also prompts a stronger response from civil society, political entities, and institutions, who may amplify their support for gender equality and social justice initiatives, standing firm on principles of equality. This dynamic has intensified the divide in opinions, placing gender equality at the heart of the polarisation.

Polarisation at work

This presents a significant obstacle to achieving consensus and collective progress. Whether in small teams or entire nations, it is crucial to establish a process for uncovering common interests. Creating a safe environment for discussing the impacts of policies and business decisions becomes essential, especially when team members hold diverse viewpoints. Subsequent decisions should aim to gain the support of the entire team. Overlooking disrespectful behavior can lead to lasting harm to the organization. This approach aids in forming agreements and solutions to address significant challenges. Currently, there is a noticeable increase in incivility within some groups, while others show a willingness to find common ground. 

Geopolitical Awareness

Tensions will affect staff relationships and organisational policies while there are two major wars going on. The fundamental problems are intensely sensitive and deeply personal. Similar to polarisation, politeness must be maintained even in the face of extremely contentious matters. It is important to know how your coworkers are affected, even if you are one of the less affected. Remarks made without knowledge can strain relationships. Taking the time and care to support those affected is an aspect of management and leadership that may have a negative impact on the business ecosystem if not managed properly.

Elections and the role of AI and social media platforms

The 2024 elections bring critical challenges and solutions regarding artificial intelligence (AI) and social media's impact on democracy. AI, particularly generative AI, introduces new risks to fair elections by enhancing threats like disinformation and deepfakes, complicating the detection of false information. To counter these risks, experts suggest platforms improve their policies and emergency responses, focus on the integrity of civic content, and address AI-generated misinformation effectively, especially close to elections. The Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) emphasises the need for election officials to be vigilant about AI's potential to increase existing security risks and recommends adhering to established security practices to mitigate these concerns. This situation underscores the urgent need for proactive measures to ensure AI and social media do not undermine electoral integrity and democracy. 

Article by Ciprian Stanescu, editor of Future Magazine with research support from Alexandra Moraru, Lead Researcher at Solutions.

Ciprian Stanescu
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